Operational modelling

Symbolbild zum Thema Modelle

The BSH operates a comprehensive numerical model system for the computation of ocean, dispersion and water quality forecasts as well as climate projections in the North Sea and Baltic Sea. With this model system, forecasts of water level, current, temperature, salinity, sea ice and biogeochemical parameters for the next days are generated and archived several times a day.

On demand based on these model results dispersion calculations for multiple application areas are carried out and a number of products are derived. These represent an important basis for the daily work of the BSH internal services, such as the water level forecast and storm surge warning service or the ice service, as well as for some national institutions (e.g. Central Command for Maritime Emergency Germany, German Navy, German Maritime Search and Rescue Association (DGzRS)). In addition, the model results are made available to numerous users in various ways in the form of figures, tables or file downloads.

The model results are stored in an extensive data archive. On request, data can be extracted, figures generated and delivered so that both internal and external customers can use the data for further evaluations. In addition, the BSH data archive also includes results of climate projections calculated as part of the DAS service. A variety of products are also created from these. From this data, a variety of products are designed too.

Workflow of the short-term forecast at the BSH. Workflow of the short-term forecast at the BSH. The red box shows the forcing data updated before each model run (no fallback position). In the orange boxes input data is shown, which is required daily, but for which there is a fallback position. The input data in the yellow box are updated once a year and the data in the green boxes come from climatologies. The blue boxes contain the model runs and work steps at the BSH.