Multi Model Ensemble (MME)

MME process MME process including all participating authorities/Institutes as well as listing all physical parameters.

In addition to its proprietary models, the BSH runs a multi-model ensemble (MME), which utilises various, already existing operational forecasts in the Northwest shelf (NWS) and Baltic Sea (BAL). The employed forecasts are compared with the mean of the model ensemble to show the degree of agreement and the deviations of different physical oceanographic parameters. The participating authorities and institutes benefit from the MME as it provides a supplement to the dedicated validation of a single model. The weighted average of the model products also provides the best estimate for some parameters.

Comparison of water level forecasts Comparison of water level forecasts [cm] at the „Greena“ station. The MME is a weighted mean over all participating forecast product. This weighted mean is determined by the mean square errors of each individual ensemble member. The individual weights are given in the legend [%].

The MME was and is being developed within the Copernicus Marine Service.